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Tesla stock: 7 things investors can expect on Battery Day

Tesla’s highly anticipated Battery Day, which has faced several delays since its reveal a year ago, is finally taking place at 16:30 ET on Monday 21 September 2020. CEO Elon Musk has promised that the event will be ‘big’, with ‘mind blowing’ battery technology to be unveiled.

Tesla’s highly anticipated Battery Day, which has faced several delays since its reveal a year ago, is finally taking place at 16:30 ET on Monday 21 September 2020.

CEO Elon Musk has promised that the event will be ‘big’, with ‘mind blowing’ battery technology to be unveiled.

Below, we look at what analysts say investors can expect during the inaugural show-and-tell.

Battery Day: What are analysts saying?

Morgan Stanley analysts, who rated the Tesla stock ‘equal weight’ alongside a target price of $272 a share – representing a downside of 38.5% from 18 September 2020’s closing price of $442, said their main expectations include:

1. Capacity

‘We are prepared for Tesla to target Terawatt scale battery capacity plans. Currently, we forecast Tesla to produce 439 GwH of batteries for their in-house production and 3rd party supply (combined) by 2030, accounting for just over a 26% share of the global EV battery market. Will Tesla target 1TwH by 2035?’

2. Higher battery manufacturing/production efficiency

‘With Maxwell, there would be theoretically a 16x production capacity increase by skipping the wet toxic chemicals to create the cathode, which then has to be dried and baked-off and needs a lot of floor space and ovens to meet that process.’

3. A doubling of energy density

‘Battery density using the DBE system shows greater than 300 Wh/kg with a path to over 500 Wh/kg. By comparison, Tesla’s most advanced (2170) battery today is around 247 Wh/kg.’

The analysts further noted that this implies a potential 20% expansion of current highest density, adding that this could lead to vehicles with significantly more range – and could potentially push Tesla Model 3 to about 400 miles per charge.

4. Improved battery life

‘Battery life also shows improved durability with almost 2x improvement as Elon Musk recently stated “…the car battery pack is around 3-to-5,000 miles, but the newly designed pack that will go into production for next year is design[ed] explicitly for a million miles of operation with minimum maintenance…’’

5. Goodbye Cobalt?

‘Tesla has been spending a great deal of effort on researching new chemistries themselves to reduce and remove cobalt from the mix.’

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6. Lower batter cell cost

‘The prevailing view is that battery cell cost can decline at a compound rate of 6% to 7% from just over a $100/KwH level today. Could Tesla communicate plans to potentially double this rate of deflation or to target $50/KwH or less by mid or latter this decade?’

7. Tesla could emerge as a full-stack battery competitor

‘Overall, the market appears to be leaning towards Tesla being a faster moving partner with scale that expands the market for all, and investors are likely looking to reengage on existing battery makers post-battery day.’

Tesla is ‘trading at twice of its worth’, says investor

Meanwhile, Ross Gerber, President and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, told IG that he is ‘expecting some big breakthroughs’ from the Tesla stock around Battery Day.

The self-proclaimed ‘long-term Tesla investor’ said that while Tesla is a ‘high risk investment’, it is now a ‘highly valued higher risk investment’.

When asked why the stock is so divisive between bulls and bears, Gerber said that’s because ‘Tesla is disrupting the energy and auto industry, and many of the analysts and people on Wall Street have been cosy with energy and autos for their entire careers’.

‘And these are huge trillion dollar industries that are being disrupted and basically destroyed by Tesla. So a lot of what you are seeing is pushback from the forces who don’t want to see Tesla be successful,’ he added.

Nevertheless, Gerber admitted that Tesla is now ‘trading at about twice of what I think it’s worth’.

‘Now, it might be warranted but we’re in a bubble and we’re at the beginning stages of this bubble. And once they start to pull some of this back, the bubble bursts very quickly. So I caution tech investors when buying high priced technology stocks,’ he said.

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  1. Create a live or demo IG Trading Account, or log in to your existing account
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Don’t Count On JPY Correction; Staying Long GBP/JPY

The path of the potential pace of the JPY decline may still be underestimated by markets, which continue trading the JPY long.

While the 10% USDJPY advance from September lows looks impressive from a momentum point of view, it may no thave been driven by Japan’s institutional investors reducing their hedging ratios or Japan’s household sector reestablishing carry trades.

Instead, investors seemed to have been caught on the wrong foot, concerned about a sudden decline of risk appetite or the incoming US administration being focused on trade issues and not on spending. Spending requires funding and indeed the President-elect Trump’s team appears to be focused on funding. Here are a few examples: Reducing corporate taxation may pave the way for US corporates repatriating some of their USD2.6trn accumulated foreign profits. Cutting bank regulation could increase the risk-absorbing capacity within bank balance sheets. Hence, funding conditions – including for the sovereign – might generally ease. De-regulating the oil sector would help the trade balance, slowing the anticipated increase in the US current account deficit. The US current account deficit presently runs at 2.6% of GDP, which is below worrisome levels. Should the incoming government push for early trade restrictions, reaction (including Asian sovereigns reducing their holdings) could increase US funding costs, which runs against the interest of the Trump team.

Instead of counting on risk aversion to stop the JPY depreciation, we expect nominal yield differentials and the Fed moderately hiking rates to unleash capital outflows from Japan.The yield differential argumenthas become more compelling with the BoJ turning into yield curve managers. Via this policy move, rising inflation rates push JPY real rates and yields lower, which will weaken the JPY. Exhibit 12 shows how much Japan’s labor market conditions have tightened. A minor surge in corporate profitability may now be sufficient, pushing Japan wages up and implicity real yields lower.

JPY dynamics are diametrical to last year . Last year, the JGB’s “exhausted”yield curve left the BoJ without a tool to push real yields low enough to adequately address the weakened nominal GDP outlook. JPY remained artificially high at a time when the US opted for sharply lower real yields. USDJPY had to decline, triggering JPY bullish secondround effects via JPY-based financial institutions increasing their FX hedge ratios and Japan’s retail sector cutting its carry trade exposures. Now the opposite seems to be happening. The managed JGB curve suggests rising inflation expectations are driving Japan’s real yield lower. The Fed reluctantly hiking rates may keep risk appetite supported but increase USD hedging costs.Financial institutions reducinghedge ratios and Japan’s household sector piling back into the carry trade could provide secondround JPY weakening effects

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Daily Financial News

Mexico raises interest rates, cites Trump as risk

The head of Mexico’s central bank says U.S. Republican candidate Donald Trump represents a “hurricane” sized threat to Mexico.

Banco de Mexico Gov. Agustin Carstens told the Radio Formula network Friday that a Trump presidency “would be a hurricane and a particularly intense one if he fulfills what he has been saying in his campaign.”

Trump has proposed building a wall along the border and re-negotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Mexico’s central bank raised its prime lending rate by half a percent to 4.75 percent Thursday, citing “nervousness surrounding the possible consequences of the U.S. elections, whose implications for Mexico could be particularly significant.”

Mexico’s peso had lost about 6 percent in value against the dollar since mid-August. It recovered slightly after the rate hike

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Financial News

Africa’s first Fairtrade certified gold co-operative offers hope to gold miners living in poverty

Syanyonja Artisan Miners’ Alliance (SAMA) has become the first artisanal small scale mining co-operative in Africa to become Fairtrade certified, bringing much needed hope to impoverished communities who risk their lives to mine the rich gold seam that runs around Lake Victoria.

SAMA is one of nine previously informal groups from Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania which has benefitted from a pilot project launched by Fairtrade in 2013. This innovative program aims to extend the benefits of Fairtrade gold to artisanal miners across East Africa.

In that short time, SAMA has undergone training in business and entrepreneurship, as well as safe use of mercury, internal control systems, labour rights and better working conditions, health and safety and more. Previously, daily contact with toxic chemicals used to process gold meant members risked disease, premature births and even death.  Fairtrade gold was first launched in 2011, and SAMA now joins Fairtrade certified gold mines MACDESA, AURELSA and SOTRAMI in Peru.

The co-operative produces just 5 kg gold per year, but nevertheless has the potential to significantly benefit many people in the local community through better conditions through certification. It is expected that Fairtrade and organizations like Cred Jewellery will support the miners, ensuring their gold can be refined and made available to jewellers in the UK and other markets.

Gonzaga Mungai, Gold Manager at Fairtrade Africa said: “This is a truly momentous and historical achievement and the realisation of a dream that is many years in the making. Gold production is an important source of income for people in rural economies. Congratulations to SAMA, it sets a precedent which shows that if groups like this can achieve certification, then it can work for others right across the African continent.”

The Fairtrade Gold Standard encourages better practice and changes to come in line with international regulation around the production and trade of so-called ‘conflict minerals’. Under the Standard, miners are required to:

  • Uphold a human rights policy preventing war crimes, bribery, money laundering and child labour
  • Clearly represent where the minerals were mined
  • Minimise the risks of conflict minerals through robust risk assessments and collaboration across supply chains
  • Report to buyers and trading partners regarding the risks of conflict minerals

Now in its second phase, the programme will focus on supporting other mining groups in the region to access affordable loans and explore a phased approach to accessing the Fairtrade market, allowing more mining co-operatives across Africa to participate in the programme.

Gonzaga added: “Sourcing African metals from smallscale miners in the Great Lakes Region is the responsible thing to do. For a long time companies have avoided buying gold from this region, with devastating consequences for impoverished communities who were already struggling. It has driven trade deeper underground, as unscrupulous buyers pay lower prices and launder illegal gold into legitimate supply chains. That’s why we have chosen to work with these groups to help them earn more from their gold within a robust compliance system that offers social, environmental, and economic protections.”

The Fairtrade gold programme offers a small but scalable solution to sustainable sourcing of gold from the region in line with Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act in the US, OECD Due Diligence Guidance and recent EU Supply-Chain Due Diligence proposals which could come into effect in 2016. This means that up to 880,000 EU firms that use tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold in manufacturing consumer products could be obliged to provide information on steps they have taken to identify and address risks in their supply chains for so-called ‘conflict minerals’.

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