Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, suggests that the release of the minutes from the September ECB policy meeting were pretty clear with the focus still very much on ensuring continued monetary stimulus.
“The minutes stated that “there should be no doubt” that the Governing Council is determined to execute asset purchases and also emphasised that it would adopt further measures as required to reach its price stability goal. The minutes also showed that the Governing Council felt it was “crucial” to maintain the high level of monetary accommodation.
Add to that, we had comments yesterday from key ECB Council members to emphasise the maintenance of the current stance. Executive Board member Praet stated that recovery would stall if stimulus was removed prematurely while Constancio was more direct stating that the report on the ECB nearing a taper consensus was simply not correct.
So the stance of the ECB is unlikely to change and we maintain that the ECB will extend QE in December at the current pace with alterations recommended by staff committees allowing for an extension. While that in itself might not drive the euro weaker, it certainly limits the upside as we move toward that key meeting in December.”