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How to Beat the Bookies in the Football Over/Under Market

One of the beautiful things about football betting is the availability of several markets to bet on. Unlike in other sports where one can only bet on a few outcomes, football presents you with a host of possibilities and opportunities to make money. In this article, we’re going to explore how to beat the bookies…

One of the beautiful things about football betting is the availability of several markets to bet on. Unlike in other sports where one can only bet on a few outcomes, football presents you with a host of possibilities and opportunities to make money. In this article, we’re going to explore how to beat the bookies in the game of football in – the over/under market.

The Over/Under market

This market is quite helpful in the sense that it saves you from the stress of predicting what the actual outcome of a football match will be.

With the Over/Under market, all you have to do is predict the range of goals that will be scored in any given match, and if your prediction is right, you walk away with your winnings.

In practice, you could predict there won’t be more than two goals (under 2.5) scored in a match. Or you could predict that there will be more than three goals (over 3.5) scored in a match.

However, that’s not to say that betting on the Over/Under market is cherries and cheese.

Far from it!

Below are a few steps to help you beat the bookies while betting on this market.

Step one: find the average goals per game

Before going ahead to bet on the range of goals in any football match, the first step is to first research the average number of goals scored per game by the two teams.

Ironically, this is the trick the bookies use, too, to determine the odds for the Under/Over market for any given match. They look at the number of goals a team has scored over a given season (or a specific period) and then divide this number by the total number of games played.

Step two: Calculate the probabilities of the suspected scorelines occurring

Now that you’ve researched the average number of goals your target teams score per game. The next thing is to calculate the probabilities (chances) of various suspected scorelines happening. Logically, the suspected scorelines should fall within the range of goals you believe the game can produce.

For example, if you feel a game has a tendency to be cagey and might not produce so many goals. You may be looking at a suspected scoreline like 0:0, 1:0, 1:1, or 2:1. This kind of scorelines can fall within the “under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 goal range.”

If you don’t have any suspected scoreline in mind, don’t worry. You can start your probability calculation from the bottom (calculate for under/over 0.5 goals), and work your way up (as high as under/over 4.5 goals). The only difference between you and someone who has suspected scorelines in mind is that you’ll need to do more calculations.

To calculate the probabilities of the suspected scorelines happening, you’ll need to employ the “John Haigh model,” which was published in his book “Taking Chances.”

In this book, John Haigh drafted a table that calculates the probabilities of a team scoring none, one, two, three, or four or more goals based on their average number of goals per game:

Average number of goals 0 1 2 3 4 or more
0.8 45% 36% 14% 4% 1%
1.2 30% 36% 22% 9% 3%
1.6 20% 32% 26% 14% 8%
2.0 14% 27% 27% 18% 14%

Let’s say you visit a site like to bet on a match where the home team has averaged 1.2 goals per game, and the away team has averaged 0.8. You can calculate the probability for under 2.5 goals happening by using the John Haigh table above.

But before you go ahead with the calculation, you’ll first need to determine the scorelines that can lead to an under 2.5 goals situation. This would be 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2.

Below is a table showing the calculation for each scoreline probability.

PS: Note that you can do a similar calculation for under/over 0.5, 1.5, 3.5, etc. goals. We’ve chosen under 2.5 goals because we suspect that the game (between two teams who have averaged a total of 2 goals per game) will not produce too many goals. If you can’t suspect anything, just start with 0.5 goals and work your way up.

Exact score Probability of home team
to score the indicated number
of goals
Probability of away team
to score the indicated number
of goals
of exact score
0-0 30% 45% 30% x 45% = 13.5%
1-0 35% 45% 36% x 45% = 16.2%
0-1 30% 36% 30% x 36% = 10.8%
1-1 36% 36% 36% x 36% = 12.96%
2-0 22% 45% 22% x 45% = 9.9%
0-2 30% 14% 30% x 14% = 4.2%

Total under 2.5 goals probability:


Since we know the individual probabilities of each possible scoreline that can lead to under 2.5 goals occurring, we now add them together to get the overall probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals, which gives us:

13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.5%

Step 3: convert the probability to decimal odds

Since your bookmaker will most likely present the odds for Under/Over market in decimal odds. It’s expected of us to convert the overall probability we have above into decimal odds, too.

You can use this formula to do that:

Decimal odds = 100 / probability

In the case of our 67.56% possibility, we’ll have a decimal odd of 1.48.

This means that you should only bet on under 2.5 goals for a match if you find a bookmaker offering odds of higher than 1.48.

If you can’t find such odds on any bookies’ site, use a similar approach to calculate for other ranges of goals, and then compare the odds.

Although this approach does not guarantee winnings, it does provide you with a trusted strategy that can fetch you a positive expected value.

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Industry News

School4Trading Review – How to Spot Possible Forex Broker Fraud

School4trading Review

School4Trading Review – How to Spot Possible Forex Broker Fraud

In this School4trading Review, we will look at the features of the software, as well as the customer support. First, let us look at the interface. The design is simple and easy to navigate. It also provides a chatbot, which helps you to communicate with the broker. The customer service is warm and inviting, which is a hallmark of a good broker. In contrast, a fraudulent broker will use cold and impersonal customer support to lure people in.

Another problem with the system is that the login process is not always intuitive. You may have to retype your password several times to get in. Then, you may experience difficulties withdrawing your funds or accessing your account. In such cases, you might have to wait for days or even weeks before you can withdraw the money you’ve invested. This is not a good sign. It’s better to choose a different trading platform altogether.

If you’re having trouble logging in, you should also check the legitimacy of the broker. Whether the broker is licensed by a reliable regulatory body or closed down, you’ll want to be sure it’s legitimate. If the broker isn’t licensed by the right body, don’t trust him. You shouldn’t waste your time with an inexperienced company. This will only cause you problems in the long run.

The next factor that should be checked is the licensing. A legitimate broker will have a license from a high regulatory body. However, a broker without a license will be unreliable. Moreover, a reliable regulator will take away the license of a scam broker. As a result, a trustworthy School4Broker/Profittrade review should mention fees, account rules, and contract terms. A scam broker will be unable to operate legally.

Secondly, look for warning signs. The broker should be licensed and regulated by a reliable regulatory body. It should be regulated by a high level. If it doesn’t, it’s a scam. Lastly, it should have a website that lets you easily access your account. Moreover, you should not hesitate to check the contact information. If you find any information that seems suspicious, you should reconsider using the broker.

In summary, Forex trading isn’t easy, but it doesn’t have to be complicated. It’s not as difficult as it seems if you’ve heard about the program. You’ll learn everything about the basics and how to become a professional. But if you’re still unsure about whether this program is right for you, don’t hesitate to contact a school4trading’s website.

The most important thing to remember when it comes to Forex trading is that it’s not easy. While it’s important to have a strong background in trading, there are a number of factors that can affect your success. Having a proper plan is vital in the long run, because you will be trading with real money. And, the platform should be reliable. Otherwise, you’ll end up losing a lot of money.

As we’ve mentioned, Forex is not easy. Investing isn’t something you can do in the comfort of your own home. You need a proven system. There are no free trials, so you’ll have to find a way to do it yourself. This isn’t a scam, and it’s a great way to make money without any help. A Forex system can help you learn the intricacies of the market.

Although the process of learning Forex isn’t an easy one, it’s certainly not impossible. Fortunately, there are many people who are willing to take the time to learn how to trade. But, even the most experienced trader needs to be aware of the risks of the market. While Forex trading isn’t easy, it can be done with the right knowledge. The software’s user-friendly interface is key.

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Daily Financial News

Don’t Count On JPY Correction; Staying Long GBP/JPY

The path of the potential pace of the JPY decline may still be underestimated by markets, which continue trading the JPY long.

While the 10% USDJPY advance from September lows looks impressive from a momentum point of view, it may no thave been driven by Japan’s institutional investors reducing their hedging ratios or Japan’s household sector reestablishing carry trades.

Instead, investors seemed to have been caught on the wrong foot, concerned about a sudden decline of risk appetite or the incoming US administration being focused on trade issues and not on spending. Spending requires funding and indeed the President-elect Trump’s team appears to be focused on funding. Here are a few examples: Reducing corporate taxation may pave the way for US corporates repatriating some of their USD2.6trn accumulated foreign profits. Cutting bank regulation could increase the risk-absorbing capacity within bank balance sheets. Hence, funding conditions – including for the sovereign – might generally ease. De-regulating the oil sector would help the trade balance, slowing the anticipated increase in the US current account deficit. The US current account deficit presently runs at 2.6% of GDP, which is below worrisome levels. Should the incoming government push for early trade restrictions, reaction (including Asian sovereigns reducing their holdings) could increase US funding costs, which runs against the interest of the Trump team.

Instead of counting on risk aversion to stop the JPY depreciation, we expect nominal yield differentials and the Fed moderately hiking rates to unleash capital outflows from Japan.The yield differential argumenthas become more compelling with the BoJ turning into yield curve managers. Via this policy move, rising inflation rates push JPY real rates and yields lower, which will weaken the JPY. Exhibit 12 shows how much Japan’s labor market conditions have tightened. A minor surge in corporate profitability may now be sufficient, pushing Japan wages up and implicity real yields lower.

JPY dynamics are diametrical to last year . Last year, the JGB’s “exhausted”yield curve left the BoJ without a tool to push real yields low enough to adequately address the weakened nominal GDP outlook. JPY remained artificially high at a time when the US opted for sharply lower real yields. USDJPY had to decline, triggering JPY bullish secondround effects via JPY-based financial institutions increasing their FX hedge ratios and Japan’s retail sector cutting its carry trade exposures. Now the opposite seems to be happening. The managed JGB curve suggests rising inflation expectations are driving Japan’s real yield lower. The Fed reluctantly hiking rates may keep risk appetite supported but increase USD hedging costs.Financial institutions reducinghedge ratios and Japan’s household sector piling back into the carry trade could provide secondround JPY weakening effects

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Daily Financial News

Mexico raises interest rates, cites Trump as risk

The head of Mexico’s central bank says U.S. Republican candidate Donald Trump represents a “hurricane” sized threat to Mexico.

Banco de Mexico Gov. Agustin Carstens told the Radio Formula network Friday that a Trump presidency “would be a hurricane and a particularly intense one if he fulfills what he has been saying in his campaign.”

Trump has proposed building a wall along the border and re-negotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Mexico’s central bank raised its prime lending rate by half a percent to 4.75 percent Thursday, citing “nervousness surrounding the possible consequences of the U.S. elections, whose implications for Mexico could be particularly significant.”

Mexico’s peso had lost about 6 percent in value against the dollar since mid-August. It recovered slightly after the rate hike

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