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ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac share prices: the 2021-22 dividend outlook

The share prices of Australia’s big four banks have traded in a mixed fashion over the last month – with the majority trading flat after releasing their third quarter and full-year trading updates in August.

The share prices of Australia’s big four banks have traded in a mixed fashion over the last month – with the majority trading flat after releasing their third quarter and full-year trading updates in August.

Overall, the banking sector remains under pressure, with interest rates sitting at historic lows, Covid-19 causing economic uncertainty across the country, and the outlook for Australia’s property market – a key driver of bank profitability – also appearing on shaky ground.

Understanding the big four banks’ August results in 60 seconds

Turning to the August results releases, while the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a robust financial performance in FY20 – declaring a 98 cents per share dividend and impressive volume growth across its lending portfolio – the bank has proven to be the worst performing of the big four over the last month, with its share price falling 7.42% in that period.

By comparison – ANZ, NAB and Westpac have all traded flatly – rising between 1.05-2.52%, in the last month.

The headline results from the banks’ full-year and third quarters are summarised below:

CBA FY20 results:

  • Statutory profits (NPAT) of $9,634 million, up 12.4%
  • Earnings per share (EPS) of 412.5 cents
  • A CET1 ratio of 11.6%
  • A 98 cents per share final dividend

WBC Q3 results:

  • Statutory earnings of $1.12 billion
  • Net interest income (NIMs) of $4,333 million
  • A CET1 ratio of 10.8%
  • The announcement that no interim dividend will be paid

NAB Q3 results:

  • Unaudited statutory net profits of $1.50 billion
  • Revenue growth of 10%
  • ‘Broadly stable’ net interest margins
  • A CET1 ratio of 11.6%

ANZ Q3 results:

  • Statutory profits of $1,327 million
  • A CET1 ratio of 11.3%
  • The announcement of a 25 cents interim dividend

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The CBA, Westpac, ANZ, NAB share price and dividend outlook

In the wake of the August earnings season, Citibank reaffirmed their mostly bullish view on the sector, with the investment bank currently rating Westpac as its most preferred bank of the big four – assigning the retail-focused bank a Buy rating; followed by NAB (Buy); ANZ (Buy); and CBA (Neutral).

Across the regionals, Citi currently favours the Bank of Queensland over the Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, rating it a Buy.

‘Valuations remain attractive, but key test for the sector comes in 4QCY20,’ Citi analysts said.

In spite of that value-oriented stance, with uncertainty still plaguing the sector and the economy more broadly, the investment bank pointed out that in the ‘absence of notable credit impairments as well as varied approaches to provisioning by the banks, the Market is left with no better insight into the impact of COVID-19.’

Morgan Stanley, by comparison to Citi, has taken a more bearish view on Australia’s banks, in a recent piece of research arguing that:

‘We believe risk will remain skewed to the downside until there is more certainty on credit quality, capital requirements and dividend payout ratios, and this looks unlikely before 2021.’

Morgan Stanley’s share price targets and FY21 and FY22 dividend estimates for the big four banks are displayed in the table below:

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Industry News

School4Trading Review – How to Spot Possible Forex Broker Fraud

School4trading Review

School4Trading Review – How to Spot Possible Forex Broker Fraud

In this School4trading Review, we will look at the features of the software, as well as the customer support. First, let us look at the interface. The design is simple and easy to navigate. It also provides a chatbot, which helps you to communicate with the broker. The customer service is warm and inviting, which is a hallmark of a good broker. In contrast, a fraudulent broker will use cold and impersonal customer support to lure people in.

Another problem with the system is that the login process is not always intuitive. You may have to retype your password several times to get in. Then, you may experience difficulties withdrawing your funds or accessing your account. In such cases, you might have to wait for days or even weeks before you can withdraw the money you’ve invested. This is not a good sign. It’s better to choose a different trading platform altogether.

If you’re having trouble logging in, you should also check the legitimacy of the broker. Whether the broker is licensed by a reliable regulatory body or closed down, you’ll want to be sure it’s legitimate. If the broker isn’t licensed by the right body, don’t trust him. You shouldn’t waste your time with an inexperienced company. This will only cause you problems in the long run.

The next factor that should be checked is the licensing. A legitimate broker will have a license from a high regulatory body. However, a broker without a license will be unreliable. Moreover, a reliable regulator will take away the license of a scam broker. As a result, a trustworthy School4Broker/Profittrade review should mention fees, account rules, and contract terms. A scam broker will be unable to operate legally.

Secondly, look for warning signs. The broker should be licensed and regulated by a reliable regulatory body. It should be regulated by a high level. If it doesn’t, it’s a scam. Lastly, it should have a website that lets you easily access your account. Moreover, you should not hesitate to check the contact information. If you find any information that seems suspicious, you should reconsider using the broker.

In summary, Forex trading isn’t easy, but it doesn’t have to be complicated. It’s not as difficult as it seems if you’ve heard about the program. You’ll learn everything about the basics and how to become a professional. But if you’re still unsure about whether this program is right for you, don’t hesitate to contact a school4trading’s website.

The most important thing to remember when it comes to Forex trading is that it’s not easy. While it’s important to have a strong background in trading, there are a number of factors that can affect your success. Having a proper plan is vital in the long run, because you will be trading with real money. And, the platform should be reliable. Otherwise, you’ll end up losing a lot of money.

As we’ve mentioned, Forex is not easy. Investing isn’t something you can do in the comfort of your own home. You need a proven system. There are no free trials, so you’ll have to find a way to do it yourself. This isn’t a scam, and it’s a great way to make money without any help. A Forex system can help you learn the intricacies of the market.

Although the process of learning Forex isn’t an easy one, it’s certainly not impossible. Fortunately, there are many people who are willing to take the time to learn how to trade. But, even the most experienced trader needs to be aware of the risks of the market. While Forex trading isn’t easy, it can be done with the right knowledge. The software’s user-friendly interface is key.

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Daily Financial News

Don’t Count On JPY Correction; Staying Long GBP/JPY

The path of the potential pace of the JPY decline may still be underestimated by markets, which continue trading the JPY long.

While the 10% USDJPY advance from September lows looks impressive from a momentum point of view, it may no thave been driven by Japan’s institutional investors reducing their hedging ratios or Japan’s household sector reestablishing carry trades.

Instead, investors seemed to have been caught on the wrong foot, concerned about a sudden decline of risk appetite or the incoming US administration being focused on trade issues and not on spending. Spending requires funding and indeed the President-elect Trump’s team appears to be focused on funding. Here are a few examples: Reducing corporate taxation may pave the way for US corporates repatriating some of their USD2.6trn accumulated foreign profits. Cutting bank regulation could increase the risk-absorbing capacity within bank balance sheets. Hence, funding conditions – including for the sovereign – might generally ease. De-regulating the oil sector would help the trade balance, slowing the anticipated increase in the US current account deficit. The US current account deficit presently runs at 2.6% of GDP, which is below worrisome levels. Should the incoming government push for early trade restrictions, reaction (including Asian sovereigns reducing their holdings) could increase US funding costs, which runs against the interest of the Trump team.

Instead of counting on risk aversion to stop the JPY depreciation, we expect nominal yield differentials and the Fed moderately hiking rates to unleash capital outflows from Japan.The yield differential argumenthas become more compelling with the BoJ turning into yield curve managers. Via this policy move, rising inflation rates push JPY real rates and yields lower, which will weaken the JPY. Exhibit 12 shows how much Japan’s labor market conditions have tightened. A minor surge in corporate profitability may now be sufficient, pushing Japan wages up and implicity real yields lower.

JPY dynamics are diametrical to last year . Last year, the JGB’s “exhausted”yield curve left the BoJ without a tool to push real yields low enough to adequately address the weakened nominal GDP outlook. JPY remained artificially high at a time when the US opted for sharply lower real yields. USDJPY had to decline, triggering JPY bullish secondround effects via JPY-based financial institutions increasing their FX hedge ratios and Japan’s retail sector cutting its carry trade exposures. Now the opposite seems to be happening. The managed JGB curve suggests rising inflation expectations are driving Japan’s real yield lower. The Fed reluctantly hiking rates may keep risk appetite supported but increase USD hedging costs.Financial institutions reducinghedge ratios and Japan’s household sector piling back into the carry trade could provide secondround JPY weakening effects

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Daily Financial News

Mexico raises interest rates, cites Trump as risk

The head of Mexico’s central bank says U.S. Republican candidate Donald Trump represents a “hurricane” sized threat to Mexico.

Banco de Mexico Gov. Agustin Carstens told the Radio Formula network Friday that a Trump presidency “would be a hurricane and a particularly intense one if he fulfills what he has been saying in his campaign.”

Trump has proposed building a wall along the border and re-negotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Mexico’s central bank raised its prime lending rate by half a percent to 4.75 percent Thursday, citing “nervousness surrounding the possible consequences of the U.S. elections, whose implications for Mexico could be particularly significant.”

Mexico’s peso had lost about 6 percent in value against the dollar since mid-August. It recovered slightly after the rate hike

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