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‘Risk On’ Market Update 12/10/20 – Forextraders.com

Markets finished last week firmly in a ‘risk-on’ frame of mind. Stocks, commodities and non-USD currencies all moved into bullish territory in terms of technical indicators. The uncertainty which characterised September’s price moves made way for a more positive outlook in a wide range of asset groups.

Trading Risk Measurement

Markets finished last week firmly in a ‘risk-on’ frame of mind. Stocks, commodities and non-USD currencies all moved into bullish territory in terms of technical indicators. The uncertainty which characterised September’s price moves made way for a more positive outlook in a wide range of asset groups.

Market Update

Stocks – Market News

• Asian markets had a mixed start to the week. The Hong Kong Hang Seng equity index was up 2.29% on Monday, but the Japanese Nikkei 225 was down -0.17%.

The mixed messages from the Asian trading sessions carried into the European open. Asian traders were wise to the risk of following the buying patterns only to find European and American traders taking profits later in the day.

Metals – Market News

  • Price action in gold and silver hints that they could have started one of their breakout patterns. Fans of the metals will be familiar with how both can build momentum and click through price levels on the way to their next target price. The main issue is deciding on trade entry points.
  • As of Monday morning, the price of gold ($1925.22) is where it was on Friday afternoon. Support 1 is at $1921.98, Support 3 at $1917.87.
  • Such price consolidation is a characteristic of the metal and there’s nothing bearish about the indicators.
  • The Hourly SMA has provided support and could be the indicator to watch. The kiss of that line in the early hours of Monday marking the week-to-date low at 1921.66. Price support in that region was also provided by the 23.6% Fib.

Source: FXTM

Energy Commodities – Market News

  • Geo-political risk rather than technical indicators continue to guide the price of crude with Azerbaijan and Armenia engaging in a will-they won’t-they military stand-off.
  • It’s hard to get a clear picture of how political uncertainty will impact price. Still, the increased volatility and price increase of 6.84% last week will be a tempting proposition for many.

Trade of the Week

Last week has been firmly signed off as a successful opportunity to ‘buy-the-dips’. Our desk put on a buy of the US 500 stock index one hour before the European stock markets opened on Monday the 5th of October. With an opening price of 3367.28, it caught the pre-market exuberance and was mostly in positive territory throughout the week. Only trading underwater in the overnight trading of Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.

Source: IG

In the morning session on Monday the 12th, the total percentage return on the US 500 position is +3.74%. The two-unit purchase trade, put on using IG, generating a profit in cash terms of £244.72 in the space of one week.

Source: IG

The obvious question to ask is whether there is any juice left in the move towards risk. The countdown to the US presidential election has started in earnest. With 22 days until votes are cast, those looking for this week’s trade might have less conviction than the position our desk put on last Monday.

Gold’s role as a defensive asset is not as strong as some would suggest. It’s hard though to look past the metal’s price action, dollar weakness, and the chance that it be seen as some kind of security as the election nears.

A position in gold could be a useful marker. Our buy-in small size for $1923.15 is one for the Demo Account, but it should help keep track of the markets.

Our analysis is based on a comprehensive summary of market data. We use a range of metrics with weighting given to simple and exponential moving averages and key technical indicators.

Any information contained on this Website is provided as general market information for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Website should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent market research before making your actual trading decisions. Opinions, market data, recommendations or any other content is subject to change at any time without notice. ForexTraders will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT ALWAYS INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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Donald Trump blasts ‘fools’ who oppose good Russian ties

US President-elect Donald Trump has posted a progression of tweets censuring the individuals who contradict great relations with Russia as “‘dumb’ individuals, or nitwits”.

Mr Trump promised to work with Russia “to comprehend a portion of the numerous… squeezing issues and issues of the WORLD!”

His remarks came after an insight report said Russia’s leader had attempted to help a Trump race triumph.

Mr Trump said Democrats were to be faulted for “gross carelessness” in permitting their servers to be hacked.

In a progression of tweets on Saturday, Mr Trump said that having a decent association with Russia was “no terrible thing” and that “lone “idiotic” individuals, or simpletons, would believe that it is awful!”

He included that Russia would regard the US increasingly when he was president

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Broker news

Bulls and Bears Took on More Currency Exposure in Week Through January

he most striking improvement among theoretical situating toward the finish of a year ago and the primary session of 2017 is not that modification were little. There was just a single gross theoretical position modification of more than 10k contracts. With sterling apparently not able to maintain even humble upticks, the bears added 13.1k contracts to the gross short position, lifting it to 120.2k contracts.

Or maybe, it is eminent that examiners for the most part added to positions, long and short, as opposed to close positions at the very end of the year. Examiners added to net long outside cash prospects positions, aside from in the Japanese yen and Swiss franc where 2.6k and 2.5k contracts were exchanged separately. Examiners likewise added to gross short positions. Here there was just a single exemption, the Japanese yen. Despite the fact that the dollar shut comprehensively higher in front of the end of the week, every one of the monetary forms we track here, spare the Mexican peso, picked up against the dollar in the three sessions since the finish of the CFTC reporting period.

Every once in a while it is helpful to review why many market members take a gander at the theoretical situating in the cash fates advertise. It is not that the outside trade is essentially a prospects showcase. It is principally an over-the-counter market in which every day turnover midpoints in abundance of $5 trillion a day.

Trade exchanged monetary forms and alternatives represented around 3% of the normal day by day turnover as indicated by the BIS study. Be that as it may, past reviews have discovered some contemporaneous connection between’s market heading and net position changes. We think it additionally offers knowledge into a specific market section of pattern supporters and energy brokers. It is not by any means the only device, yet one of a few data sources.

One ramifications of this is albeit theoretical positions in the money fates market are moderately extensive, it is still little contrasted and the money showcase. Along these lines, it is difficult to see the genuine essentialness of a record vast position, as though there is some market top. At some point, examiners are not driving the costs, possibly there is another fragment, national banks, enterprises, as well as genuine cash that is more essential at any given minute.

We invest some energy taking a gander at gross positions instead of just net theoretical positions, which is the more customary approach. We think a more granular look is frequently fundamental. There is a distinction between short-covering, for instance, and new purchasing, however it appears to be identical in the net. Additionally, the gross position is the place the introduction is not the net position. A net position of zero does not mean the market is nonpartisan. Net positions could be huge, which implies a short press or a negative stun could in any case troublesome. The positions that must be balanced are captured in the gross measure not the net figure.

We find numerous customers are likewise keen on theoretical situating in the US Treasuries and oil. The net and gross short theoretical Treasury position has swelled to new records. The bears added 23.8k contracts to the as of now record net short position, lifting it to 616.2k contracts. The bulls attempted to pick a base and added about 20k contracts to the gross long position, which now remains at 471.2k contracts. These modification prompted to a 3.8k contract increment in the net short position to 344.9k contracts.

The bulls delayed in the oil prospects toward the finish of 2016. They exchanged short of what one thousand contracts, leaving 608.1k gross in length contracts. The bears added 4.1k contracts to the gross short position, giving them 168k. These conformities trimmed the net long position by very nearly 5k contracts to 440.1k.

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Broker news

3 ways to profit in the ‘year of the dollar’

In December, the Federal Reserve raised loan fees for the second time since the Great Recession and included the desire of a 2017 financing cost climb to its gauge. Furthermore, only a couple days prior, the abundantly anticipated minutes from the most recent Fed meeting demonstrated the most hawkish tone from the national bank in two years.

In the meantime, Europe has been dove into political turmoil after a year ago’s Brexit vote and the later abdication of Italy’s leader. Somewhere else, the Bank of Japan proceeds down the way of negative rates and forceful security purchasing.

Put it all together, and it isn’t astounding that the U.S. Dollar Index is up against 14-year highs.

Speculators may have missed so much discussion on account of babble about the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the end of the day almost hitting 20,000. Be that as it may, paying little respect to your assignment to stocks or your venture skyline, this sort of huge picture incline in the dollar implies right now is an ideal opportunity to position your portfolio to benefit and, maybe most critical, to keep away from a portion of the pitfalls that can originate from a solid local cash.

Here are a couple ideas dollar exchanges ought to consider:

Residential plays over multinationals

There’s a considerable measure of seek after shopper stocks in 2017 on account of an enhancing work market and any desires for a jolt under a GOP-controlled Congress and President Donald Trump. In any case, remember that not all retailers are made equivalent especially those with abroad operations that are adversely affected by the wide dissimilarity in monetary standards at this moment.

For example, retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc.(WMT) said troublesome money trade rates shaved very nearly 2.5% off profit for each partake in the second quarter of 2016. On the other hand consider that in the monetary final quarter of 2016, athletic attire goliath Nike Inc.(NKE) saw its income development cut down the middle because of forex weights, from 12% year-over-year in consistent cash measures to only 6% including real money changes.

To take advantage of the “reflation” exchange that numerous financial specialists are counts on in 2017, you need to represent the headwinds that a solid dollar are making for multinationals at this moment. The most ideal approach to do that is to consider customer plays that do by far most of their business here in the U.S. – for example, Foot Locker Inc.(FL), which has been an uncommon splendid spot in retail throughout the most recent couple of years.

Supported money ETFs

Obviously, in the event that you need a steady portfolio, you can’t just purchase just local centered values. Geographic expansion is similarly as imperative as enhancement crosswise over parts and resource classes. Such a large number of financial specialists keep on holding worldwide plays in light of a legitimate concern for a balanced portfolio, regardless of the possibility that it implies battling a daunting struggle as a result of a solid dollar.

The uplifting news, notwithstanding, is that you don’t need to leave yourself to torment through a solid dollar and a powerless euro when you put resources into Europe. Nor do you need to stress over the yen-dollar conversion standard when you put resources into Japan. That is on account of there’s an entire group of cash supported ETFs to permit financial specialists to put their cash in outside business sectors yet keep away from forex issues.

Consider that Japan’s Nikkei 225 file is up around 25% from its July 2016 lows. The WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund(DXJ) is up 35% in a similar period on account of assurance from forex issues and a somewhat better-performing rundown of stocks – while the non-supported iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ) is up only 10% in a similar period because of battling a difficult task against a solid dollar.

In the event that you need to differentiate your portfolio comprehensively, you ought to consider supported assets that incorporate the Japan-centered DXJ, the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund(HEDJ) to play Europe or the iShares money Hedged MSCI EAFE ETF (HEFA) for developing markets.

Dollar list ETF

In the event that you are searching for an immediate play on a rising dollar as opposed to putting resources into stocks, figuring out how to exchange remote trade can appear like an overwhelming undertaking. Gratefully, there’s the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP).

This ETF is attached to the U.S. Dollar Index, which is a measure of the greenback against a wicker container of other worldwide monetary standards including the yen and the euro. It’s a straight money play, however that doesn’t make it straightforward or hazard free. In the event that the dollar debilitates, you’ll lose cash similarly as though you’re putting resources into a stock that has fallen on difficult circumstances. Furthermore, obviously, PowerShares takes a little cut of your speculations en route that indicates 0.8% yearly, or $80 a year on each $10,000 contributed.

Still, in the event that you need to conjecture on the dollar or support against a solid U.S. cash keeping down other worldwide ventures on your rundown, it’s maybe the least demanding approach to do as such for generally financial specialists.

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