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Lloyds share price could fall after Marshall Wace makes £100m short bet

Lloyds continues to trade within a narrow band ahead of Brexit, with investors taking a wait and see approach to British banks amid rising coronavirus cases that have led to tighter restrictions and renewed pressure on UK businesses.

  • Lloyds dim outlook attracts short seller interest from Marshall Wace
  • Bank of England urges Britain and EU to agree trade deal
  • GBP/USD rises despite Brexit fears

Lloyds continues to trade within a narrow band ahead of Brexit, with investors taking a wait and see approach to British banks amid rising coronavirus cases that have led to tighter restrictions and renewed pressure on UK businesses.

But the UK lender is already trading near all-time lows, with London-based hedge fund Marshall Wace taking out a £100 million short position against the bank in September with the expectation that the stock will fall even further amid a myriad of headwinds.

Lloyds’ performance is heavily dependent on the success of the UK economy and, thankfully for it, mortgage approvals soared to a near 13-year high in August. In fact, mortgage borrowing hit £3.1 billion in August, supported by the government’s stamp duty suspension until 31 March 2021 on the first £500,000 of all property sales in England and Northern Ireland to boost house prices.

However, the outlook for Lloyds remains bleak. Rising coronavirus cases could lead to a second national lockdown. Tensions between the UK and the EU over Brexit make a no-deal scenario look increasingly likely and the government’s unwinding of furlough could cause a huge spike in unemployment. All of which would spell disaster for the UK economy and could hit Lloyds – the country’s largest mortgage lender – extremely hard.

Lloyds is trading at 28p per share at the time of publication, with the stock down 55% year-to-date.

Bank of England boss urges UK and EU to reach trade deal

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has urged Britain and the EU to reach a trade deal and avoid a no-deal Brexit.

‘I do think it is in the interests of both sides – let’s be blunt – to get an agreement,’ Bailey said in an interview with the Yorkshire Post on Thursday.

‘I’m surprised that the EU wants to restrict where their citizens can do business. We will certainly keep our markets open to the world,’ he added.

Bailey also said that he does not expect the second wave of coronavirus cases to be as damaging to the UK economy as the initial wave. The first wave of cases, which forced the UK government to impose a national lockdown, led to a 20% decline in economic activity in the three months to June.

The BoE is ready to take decisive action to support the UK economy, Bailey added. However, he conceded that some sectors of the UK economy, such as hospitality, are likely to come under severe pressure if Covid-19 persists and continues to hurt demand.

‘The policy tools will be used to the fullest extent possible to support the businesses and people of this country,’ Bailey said. ‘We’ve got to face up to the question of how long the economy can go on for before some degree of structural change has to happen. It’s a hard one.’

GBP/USD continues to rise despite Brexit fears

GBP/USD has found the strength to rally despite signs of a hardening UK stance in Brexit negotiations, according to Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.

‘The price is pushing back towards the top end of recent gains, with the price repeatedly falling back from $1.30 since mid-September,’ Beauchamp said.

‘However, with signs of strong buying in recent sessions and still-rising stochastics the momentum remains with the buyers, bolstering the chances of a move back above the 50-day SMA ($1.3032).’

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NinjaTrader Review 2020: Pros, Cons, Fees & More • Benzinga

If you’re on the hunt for the best online brokerage, Ninja Trader is a great fit for both new investors and seasoned traders. Some of the key features in NinjaTrader’s futures brokerage service include:

If you’re on the hunt for the best online brokerage, Ninja Trader is a great fit for both new investors and seasoned traders. Some of the key features in NinjaTrader’s futures brokerage service include:

  • Commissions as low as $.09 per Micro contract
  • Low $400 account minimum
  • Low day trading margins of $500 per contract for E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) stock index futures contracts
  • $1,000 margins for Gold (GC) and Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts
  • Free version of NinjaTrader platform included with all brokerage accounts
  • Three platform license levels with varying feature sets and commission rates

In addition, the broker offers competitive spreads and a high-speed execution service for forex currency pairs.  

Who’s NinjaTrader For?

Futures Traders

NinjaTrader’s brokerage services cater directly to futures traders. It’s the ideal destination for those both active and new, with unlimited free use for advanced charting, market analysis, and simulation trading.

Advanced Traders

NinjaTrader’s state-of-the-art trading platform has a variety of features available across three license levels that allow traders to select the best fit for their trading approach. There are two upgrade feature sets available, Trader + and Order Flow +.

While advanced charting, market analysis, and simulated trading are included free for all users, licensing Trader + or Order Flow + gives you access to premium tools such as an enhanced SuperDOM, an advanced alerting system, semi-automated order execution, volumetric bars, and other sophisticated charting systems.

Active Traders

With commission among the lowest in the industry, traders can keep their costs low on a per contract basis. NinjaTrader’s low margins are also a great fit for active traders. With numerous technical analysis tools available, the trading platform can help users target opportunities and manage execution in volatile markets.

NinjaTrader has their flagship advanced trading platform for Windows-based desktop computers. Other third-party platforms are supported and available by request. If you are a Mac user, you can run the software using a multi-boot utility like Apple Boot Camp.

Source: https://ninjatrader.com/

NinjaTrader features a wide range of technical analysis functions that can be useful for those starting out with demo trading — especially if you want to learn how to trade futures.

The broker uses CQG (Continuum) for order routing by default but also supports order execution through Rithmic. Kinetick is also available as a free end of day market data source for stock, futures and forex data optimized exclusively for use with NinjaTrader’s platform.

If you’re interested in trying out the NinjaTrader platform using futures data, you can register to get a free two-week trial.

A free version of the NinjaTrader platform is included with all funded brokerage accounts and has all the core features needed for live trading, with access to charts, market analysis, and simulated trading.

If you want to access some of its more advanced capabilities, you can either lease the software starting at a quarterly basis or purchase a Lifetime license, which includes free upgrades for life.

The advanced tool sets are where NinjaTrader really shines. For example, sophisticated order types known as automated trade management (ATM) strategies are included in the Trader + feature suite. These consist of a set of specific rules you create to manage a group of stop-loss and profit target orders to operate on all or part of an open position.

NinjaTrader’s third-party developer community, known as NinjaTrader Ecosystem, features thousands of third-party apps and add-ons you can use with its trading platform. From their website, you can use the keyword search and filters to scan hundreds of custom tools and trading indicators built to work with NinjaTrader.

If you have programming skills, you can build compatible software within its advanced C# based development environment.

The NinjaTrader platform provides a high-performance backtesting engine which allows users to test and verify futures trading strategies using historical data. A wide range of useful educational materials are available if you’re unfamiliar with its platform and wat to enhance your skills.

These include daily training webinars designed to educate new users on the powerful tools available, hundreds of on-demand training videos, help guides, and an informative YouTube channel.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg4ocBoYrjM]

NinjaTrader’s Commission and Fees

Commission and margin requirements are among the lowest in the industry. A $1,000 minimum initial deposit is required to fund a new account and commissions go as low as $.09 per Micro contract with a Lifetime license. Day trading margins of $500 for ES, NQ and YM contracts, and $400 for GC and CL contracts are also very low.

When it comes to platform fees, the broker’s advanced platform and live data are available free of charge for use in a demo account. For live trading, you can use their free platform with all the basic essentials or choose a paid license level for more advanced features and lower commissions.

If you lease or buy a Lifetime license for the trading platform software, you also gain access to a suite of premium features that include its advanced trading management (ATM) strategic order handling. Traders who purchase a lifetime license also get the Order Flow feature set which comes with free platform upgrades for life.

NinjaTrader’s Security

NinjaTrader is well-regulated in the United States by the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

NinjaTrader’s Customer Support

NinjaTrader’s online support team excels in prompt replies with inquiries addressed within 15 minutes during market hours. An active user community interacts directly with the NinjaTrader support team in their User Forum. They also host daily live training webinars, have hundreds of on-demand training videos, and more.

NinjaTrader can be reached by email, phone, and an online support form for customer service. For critical trade issues, NinjaTrader provides direct phone support for brokerage clients. International traders are also directly supported with dedicated Spanish, Russian and German brokerage service teams. 

NinjaTrader’s Tradable Asset Classes

NinjaTrader brokerage offers a basic range of asset classes with a focus on futures trading on the CME, CBOT, NYBOT and Eurex exchanges. You can trade the following asset classes via NinjaTrader:

  • Futures 
  • Forex 
  • CFDs
  • Stocks*

*The platform can also be used through other supporting brokers such as TD Ameritrade or Interactive Brokers to trade stocks.

NinjaTrader’s Ease of Use

After downloading the NinjaTrader platform, it’s best to spend some time on the forum and watch the tutorial videos provided. It may take some time to set-up your ideal dashboard.

While NinjaTrader’s platform is exceptionally customizable and offers numerous advanced features, it may not be considered easy to use when you first download the platform.

Final Thoughts

NinjaTrader is one of the top brokers for futures and forex trading. The unlimited use of its free platform is a great way to get acclimated to NinjaTrader before deciding to trade live.

The free platform is sufficient for new traders with more advanced tools available as need such as semi-automated execution. NinjaTrader’s low commissions and fees, free tools, and an active community forum will work to any trader’s advantage.

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‘Risk On’ Market Update 12/10/20 – Forextraders.com

Markets finished last week firmly in a ‘risk-on’ frame of mind. Stocks, commodities and non-USD currencies all moved into bullish territory in terms of technical indicators. The uncertainty which characterised September’s price moves made way for a more positive outlook in a wide range of asset groups.

Trading Risk Measurement

Markets finished last week firmly in a ‘risk-on’ frame of mind. Stocks, commodities and non-USD currencies all moved into bullish territory in terms of technical indicators. The uncertainty which characterised September’s price moves made way for a more positive outlook in a wide range of asset groups.

Market Update

Stocks – Market News

• Asian markets had a mixed start to the week. The Hong Kong Hang Seng equity index was up 2.29% on Monday, but the Japanese Nikkei 225 was down -0.17%.

The mixed messages from the Asian trading sessions carried into the European open. Asian traders were wise to the risk of following the buying patterns only to find European and American traders taking profits later in the day.

Metals – Market News

  • Price action in gold and silver hints that they could have started one of their breakout patterns. Fans of the metals will be familiar with how both can build momentum and click through price levels on the way to their next target price. The main issue is deciding on trade entry points.
  • As of Monday morning, the price of gold ($1925.22) is where it was on Friday afternoon. Support 1 is at $1921.98, Support 3 at $1917.87.
  • Such price consolidation is a characteristic of the metal and there’s nothing bearish about the indicators.
  • The Hourly SMA has provided support and could be the indicator to watch. The kiss of that line in the early hours of Monday marking the week-to-date low at 1921.66. Price support in that region was also provided by the 23.6% Fib.

Source: FXTM

Energy Commodities – Market News

  • Geo-political risk rather than technical indicators continue to guide the price of crude with Azerbaijan and Armenia engaging in a will-they won’t-they military stand-off.
  • It’s hard to get a clear picture of how political uncertainty will impact price. Still, the increased volatility and price increase of 6.84% last week will be a tempting proposition for many.

Trade of the Week

Last week has been firmly signed off as a successful opportunity to ‘buy-the-dips’. Our desk put on a buy of the US 500 stock index one hour before the European stock markets opened on Monday the 5th of October. With an opening price of 3367.28, it caught the pre-market exuberance and was mostly in positive territory throughout the week. Only trading underwater in the overnight trading of Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.

Source: IG

In the morning session on Monday the 12th, the total percentage return on the US 500 position is +3.74%. The two-unit purchase trade, put on using IG, generating a profit in cash terms of £244.72 in the space of one week.

Source: IG

The obvious question to ask is whether there is any juice left in the move towards risk. The countdown to the US presidential election has started in earnest. With 22 days until votes are cast, those looking for this week’s trade might have less conviction than the position our desk put on last Monday.

Gold’s role as a defensive asset is not as strong as some would suggest. It’s hard though to look past the metal’s price action, dollar weakness, and the chance that it be seen as some kind of security as the election nears.

A position in gold could be a useful marker. Our buy-in small size for $1923.15 is one for the Demo Account, but it should help keep track of the markets.

Our analysis is based on a comprehensive summary of market data. We use a range of metrics with weighting given to simple and exponential moving averages and key technical indicators.

Any information contained on this Website is provided as general market information for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Website should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent market research before making your actual trading decisions. Opinions, market data, recommendations or any other content is subject to change at any time without notice. ForexTraders will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT ALWAYS INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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Learn with ForexTB: The battle of the currencies!

What is currency trading?How do currency pairs work?What currency pair is the most popular to trade and why? A few of the most common questions concerning traders when it comes to currency trading!Well, we’ve got all the answers, but first let’s start with some simple explanations and, as we go along, we’ll cover everything around…

An introductory guide to forex trading

What is
currency trading?
How do currency pairs work?
What currency pair is the most popular to trade and why?

A few of
the most common questions concerning traders when it comes to currency trading!
Well, we’ve got all the answers, but first let’s start with some simple explanations
and, as we go along, we’ll cover everything around the currency market.  

Forex trading
(aka. Foreign exchange, duh!), is all
about buying and selling currencies in pairs
. All you need to know is how
much the currency pair is worth. However, it’s not that simple, as these
currency pairs do not always deliver the desirable results to traders.

Before we dive into the trading currency
pairs, let’s see some of the most popular currencies out there. These are:

  1. US Dollar (USD)
  2. Euro (EURO)
  3. British Pound (GBP)
  4. Australian Dollar (AUD)
  5. Canadian Dollar (CAD)
  6. Swiss Franc (CHF)
  7. Japanese Yen (JPY)

Now, let’s see how they look in
pairs according to the category they fit in.
Currency pairs are divided into three categories. The “Majors“, the “Crosses” and
the “Exotics“, each with its own
characteristics.

1. The “Majors”
These currency pairs are always paired
with the U.S dollar
, with EUR/USD
being at the top of the currency pairs table as the most traded currency pair
in the market
. These are:

FXTB2

So why is the EUR/USD pair the most popular and traded pair ever?
Because both currencies represent two of
the biggest economies in the world!
Thus, trading this pair will result to
having tight spreads. And YES, this is a good thing because the lower the
spread is, the lower the fees you pay when you enter a trade.

2. The “Crosses”
These currency pairs do not involve the
U.S Dollar
.

These include and not limited to:

FXTB3

3. The “Exotics” *
These currency pairs include one major
currency
, this being the US Dollar, and one currency from a developing market. Some examples of exotic
currency pairs are:

FXTB4

Something
to note in this category: Exotics tend to be “trickier” in terms of price
fluctuation, due to economic factors. For example: A political result or
scandal in Mexico can cause the USD/MXN price to change unexpectedly!
Therefore… Trade at your own risk, if you’re about to trade with these pairs
(well, you should always be careful when trading)!

So, as we’re approaching to the
end of this useful educational article, it
is advised for less experienced traders, NOT TO trade with multiple currency
pairs simultaneously
! We recommend that you make yourself comfortable whilst trading on a demo account, as this
will make you gain confidence and at the same time potentially achieve better
results! Well, we can’t guarantee that, but you get the gist. Once you’ve mastered currencies, you can
slowly expand you trading abilities and start trading with new currency pairs!

Don’t you agree?

This article was submitted by ForexTB.
For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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